8 October 2026
Zimbabwe's economy is growing. Current
projections indicate GDP growth of more than 5% in 2026. Inflation has fallen
below 5%, while import cover has improved to about two months. Along Samora
Machel Avenue, policymakers are understandably pleased. The prevailing
narrative is that Zimbabwe has finally turned the corner.
Yet important questions remain. Is this growth
real? Who is benefiting from it? What are its sources? Most importantly, is it
sustainable?
To answer these questions, we must subject
Zimbabwe's economic performance to three simple tests: the prosperity test, the
rodents test, and the hand-of-God test. There may be many other analytical
frameworks, but these three are sufficient to illuminate the nature of the
growth Zimbabwe is currently experiencing.
To begin with, there is an important
distinction between economic growth and economic development.
Economic growth focuses largely on statistical
indicators. If inflation falls below 10%, GDP expands by more than 5%, and
foreign currency reserves improve, then there is a plausible argument of
growth.
Economic development, however, is something
deeper. It concerns the improvement of people's lives as a result of that
growth. It asks whether citizens, regardless of gender, ethnicity, class,
political affiliation, or religion, are becoming more prosperous. Are
communities enjoying better access to jobs, education, healthcare, food
security, and economic opportunity?
If economic growth is not translating into
broad-based development, then a problem exists. Development economists have
long argued that the ultimate purpose of economic policy is the prosperity of
the people. This raises a fundamental question: is Zimbabwe genuinely on a path
toward prosperity by 2030, as frequently advertised?
It is encouraging to observe rising production
in minerals such as gold, lithium, coal and iron ore, as well as agricultural
products including tobacco, blueberries and wheat. Roads are being
rehabilitated and expanded. Air Zimbabwe has returned to the skies. New
shopping centres and industrial projects are emerging across the country.
Diaspora remittances exceed US$2 billion annually, while foreign investment
appears to be increasing.
These are positive developments.
But another question must be asked: what is
the condition of Zimbabwe's reservoir, its isiphala or dura? Is
it secure, sealed and protected from rodents?
The mathematics is simple. No matter how much
grain a family harvests, if the granary is infested with rats and weevils,
hunger will eventually follow. Likewise, no matter how impressive economic
growth figures may appear, leakages, corruption and weak accountability can
undermine national prosperity.
This is where Chapter 9 of the Constitution
becomes critical. The chapter provides a framework for protecting public
resources through institutions of accountability and oversight. The question is
whether its provisions have been fully implemented. Are Zimbabwe’s gold and
forex reserves safe?
The third test is what I call the
hand-of-God test. This is more political than economic, but it deserves
discussion nevertheless.
When economies fail, the blame usually falls
on the President. When they succeed, the credit often goes to the Minister of
Finance.
Perhaps this explains why some of my friends
attribute every positive economic challenge to President Emmerson Mnangagwa,
while others celebrate Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube. Failure has no father,
they say; and success has many mothers. This is what we have.
Even economists disagree on the size and
trajectory of Zimbabwe's economy. Eddie Cross and others have previously argued
that Zimbabwe's GDP exceeds US$80 billion. Other analysts, including members of
the Friday Drinks Network (FDN), remain sceptical and demand stronger evidence.
The official government estimate, advanced by Mthuli Ncube, places the economy
at approximately US$56.7 billion.
Part of this discrepancy arises from
Zimbabwe's vast informal sector, which remains difficult to measure accurately.
The informal economy is large, diverse and
resilient. It spans agriculture, mining, manufacturing, retail and services. A
significant share of Zimbabwe's gold and maize production originates from
small-scale producers. Tobacco production has followed a similar trend.
Equally important, much of the country's
consumer distribution network is driven by small traders, tuckshops and
informal retailers. Many of these businesses operate outside formal
registration systems, yet they move volumes substantial enough to place them
squarely within the distribution chains of companies such as Varun, Arenel,
Dairibord, Delta, Proton and Bakers Inn, among others.
These businesses are often preferred because
they pay cash, usually in US dollars, upon delivery. By contrast, many formal
retailers seek extended credit arrangements payable in Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG). That
is why producers favour to deal with the informal sector more than the formal
retail giants.
The larger debate concerning the role of the
informal economy is perhaps for another day. However, one point deserves
emphasis: government should not seek to destroy or disrupt informal enterprises
through punitive operations.
Instead, the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority
(ZIMRA) should pursue a charm offensive aimed at encouraging voluntary
registration and tax compliance. Tax registration should serve as a gateway to
broader economic participation, including access to formal banking services.
At present, banking requirements remain
unnecessarily cumbersome. In an era of digital identity verification, biometric
technology and advanced data systems, opening a corporate bank account should
not require excessive paperwork and bureaucratic hurdles.
In Botswana or Mauritius, the process is
relatively straightforward. In Zimbabwe, opening a business account often feels
like an endurance test requiring multiple trips to the bank, unnecessary
documentation and endless promises. Such obstacles discourage formalisation and
undermine financial inclusion.
To his credit, Mthuli Ncube, together with his
colleagues at the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, has overseen significant
stabilization efforts. Likewise, policymakers at Munhumutapa Building deserve
recognition for promoting a whole-of-government reform agenda aimed at reducing
the cost of doing business.
Reforms in agriculture, transport and tourism
have been particularly noteworthy.
One example is the removal of taxes and levies
that burdened small-scale dairy and beef producers. Under previous
arrangements, farmers could pay as much as US$65 annually per dairy cow in
development-related charges, despite the country's chronic milk shortages. The
removal of such distortions has contributed to increasing milk and beef
production.
These outcomes reflect sound economic
principles.
Yet beyond Mthuli's policy interventions lie
two additional factors: Ubuntu and God.
Diaspora remittances and the strength of the
informal economy are manifestations of Zimbabwean resilience, what many would
describe as “zve nharo/ okwe nkani”. These achievements owe little to
government policy and much to the determination of ordinary Zimbabweans.
Millions have sacrificed consumption, endured
separation from family, and worked tirelessly to save resources for investments
back home. They have built houses, established businesses, purchased equipment,
funded agricultural ventures and supported relatives through difficult times.
The cumulative contribution of the Diaspora,
both within Africa and beyond, is impossible to ignore.
The policy lesson is clear. Government should
avoid overtaxing remittances through multiple transaction charges. Rather,
Zimbabwe should create more incentives and tax-efficient channels for
remittance inflows. After all, why offer generous tax holidays to a single
investor bringing US$30 million into the country while imposing costs on a
community that collectively contributes more than US$2 billion annually?
Which investment is more valuable?
The hand of God is also evident in Zimbabwe's
natural resource endowment and favourable global commodity cycles.
The rise of lithium, increased discoveries of
gold, platinum, coal and gas, together with growing global demand for strategic
minerals required by the green and technological revolutions, has created
unprecedented opportunities.
Zimbabwe is fortunate to be part of a regional
mineral belt that includes Zambia, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of
Congo.
These advantages are largely God-given.
Nevertheless, at the next ZANU-PF People's Congress, I have little doubt that
Mthuli Ncube will receive much of the credit. Perhaps he should. After all,
Zimbabwe has had several Finance Ministers since 1980, and not all have
presided over the present level of stability.
Conclusion
The central policy issue remains the
implementation of Chapter 9 of the Constitution.
Inflation may be stable. Foreign reserves may
be rising. Economic growth may indeed be accelerating. Yet without robust
accountability institutions, these gains remain vulnerable.
As the old saying goes, "isiphala sizo
qedwa amagundwane/ dura rinopera ngemakonzo”- the national granary will be
destroyed by rodents.
Chapter 9 provides the mechanism for
protecting national wealth. It requires stronger accountability, greater
transparency and decisive action against those indicted by the Auditor-General
and the Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission (ZACC).
An economy grounded in the rule of law and
secure property rights is ultimately more resilient than one sustained solely
by fiscal prudence and monetary discipline.
Zimbabwe's recent gains are encouraging. But
unless the leakages are sealed and the rodents removed from public
institutions, those gains will remain fragile. 2030 usase katshana- 2030 achi
kure!
Chapter 9 is the antidote.
Itai Zimunya is a liberal economic analyst based in Mutare. He works with The Eastern Caucus (TECa) think-tank.
